On UEFA Coefficients and Serie A's Progress

Papu Gomez celebrates Atalanta's equalizer vs Lyon in the Europa League

In the late summer of 2002, the question of whether Serie A could still be considered the best league in the world seemed more pressing than ever.  No Italian club had reached the quarter-final of the Champions League in the season that had just ended, the national team had disintegrated at the World Cup, and the league's star Ronaldo had left Inter for Real Madrid.

In truth, the question had been asked for years, quietly or stridently, and at the start of the 2002-03 season the answer seemed obvious: no. 

Eight months later, however, Inter, Juventus and Milan were in the semi-finals of the Champions League, and journalists had to revise obituaries.  On May 28, 2003, Old Trafford hosted the first all-Italian Final between Milan and Juventus.  Serie A was vindicated, robed in the glitter of UEFA's premier event, but the game was played in the cagey spirit for which Italian football is stereotyped and maligned, as if the two clubs were determined to torture their detractors, slowly, with flints and chisels.  The Final was rarely carved open.  Milan won on penalties, and Italian football's critics paid them--for being too quick to close the door, to forget the qualities that make Italian football competitive and relevant.

Today, fourteen years later, the question of whether Serie A is the best league in the world has a clear answer yet again: no.  The criteria that many use to arrive at this conclusion varies--entertainment, star power, financial health et al.--but more and more are now using what only a small core of fans did several years ago, the UEFA coefficient system (for a quick explanation of the system check out Bert Kassies's valuable site).

Every Champions League and Europa League matchday, I become a better person and cheer for all Italian clubs.  The reason is sentimental but can also be expressed as a formula.  This season, for every win Italy gets 2 (for a draw 1, for a loss 0) divided by 6 (total number of teams allotted) points, or 0.333 points.  So, this past matchday, Italy managed 5 wins (Milan, Napoli, Juventus, Lazio, and Roma) and 1 draw (Atalanta), totaling 1.833 points.  As a result, Italy climbed up to third spot in the UEFA coefficient rankings, ahead of Germany, and now sits tantalizingly close to England (Spain are far, far ahead).

The meaning of that success has few practical consequences in the immediate term.  Late last year, UEFA announced that the top 4 leagues (Spain, England, Italy, and Germany) would enjoy four representatives in the Champions League from the 2018-19 anyway.  But the coefficient ranking nonetheless quantifies a league's success, setting aside the gnashing of teeth and making numeric the vexed and emotional 'which league is best' debate. 

UEFA Coefficient rankings (image taken from Bert Kassies's site located here)

The UEFA coefficient system does have its flaws.  For example, it weighs victories in the Europa League the same as those in the Champions League, with only bonus points awarded upon progression in the latter to compensate partially for the calculation.  But the system remains the closest thing we have to a deterministic criteria for judging the health and strength of various leagues across Europe.

It also matters for the league's vanity, for its self-esteem.  After every matchday, it is now common for Italian journalists on social media to remind us where Serie A is in the rankings.  And this season, no one expected Serie A to be more than 3.5 points ahead of Germany.  There have been some performances of distinction as well, like Atalanta flattening Everton 3-0 in the Europa League a few weeks ago, and earning a point against Lyon in France just this past week, or like Napoli totally dominating Nice over two legs in the Champions League play-offs. 

This season may be Serie A's best chance to solidify its position in third, and even replace England in second when you consider both the quality of their representation, and that they will have one more representative next season (meaning a higher number to divide the points by, and thus a lower return for a win, for those keeping track).  Milan and Lazio should go deep into the tournament (Milan's ludicrous 3-2 win over Rijeka on Thursday notwithstanding), and Atalanta have started convincingly with four points from their two toughest games.  And then there are Juventus, who have played two losing Champions League Finals in the last two years, but who have nonetheless earned Italy valuable points, and should earn more this year.

Serie A may not be able to repeat what it did in 2002-03 in the Champions League, but the feats of 2014-15 are achievable, and, hopefully, surpassable.  That season, Italy earned 19 points.  Lazio and Napoli played the semi-finals of the Europa League, and Juventus the Final of the Champions League.  The early signs are promising. 

Faith in Five

Udinese celebrate Antonio Di Natale's equalizer against Celtic

Perhaps it was a rare moment of patriotism, or even a rarer moment of foresight.  When it comes to the club level, Italian football is not normally known for either, and yet what many Italian football fans realized on Thursday, as Udinese played out the dying seconds of the draw that they needed against Celtic to enter the next phase of the Europa League, was that five Italian teams would be in European competition in the new year.  For once, Italian participants in the Europa League, an officially reinvigorated second-tier competition that already seems moribund, put in the graft without any promise of lucrative reward.

Like it or not, as I have persistently written in the past, the Europa League counts just as much as the Champions League when it comes to that well-concealed UEFA coefficient points system, a system that has pervasive consequences for how much money a league can hope to see from the Champions League.  Italy has already lost its fourth Champions League spot, which makes the top three spots in the Serie A coveted real estate.  For this year though, Napoli's searing run through Manchester City has been the apotheosis of Serie A's campaign in Europe.  Quite simply, Milan and Inter have not impressed as much, and that is even after you take into account the Rossoneri's theatrical, for all the good reasons, 3-2 loss to Barcelona.

What Lazio and Udinese have done in the Europa League is crucial work for the Italian bid, leaving Serie A in a position to amass a points total of 15 or greater this year.  Doing so, will let them steer clear of France, who are menacing in fifth spot, but now only have two representatives left in this year's competition--Marseille and Lyon in the Champions League.  Also, if Italy do want to reclaim the third spot in the rankings, then beating Germany this year could be foundational for that challenge.  The Bundesliga only have four representatives left in the competition, and when you consider Bayer Leverkusen are up against Barcelona, Italy's chances to charge ahead of Germany this year seem promising.

Currently, Italy is on 9.500 points (see table below), already about two points behind the total they managed last year.  Remember, a win in UEFA competition for Italy means 2 points (a draw means 1) divided by 7, the total number of positions that Italy is allotted (consider how important, then, it was for Milan to hold onto their 2-0 lead against Viktoria Plzen on Matchday 6, or for Inter to beat Trabzonspor on Matchday 1).

In the Europa League, Udinese have been handed a somewhat easier task of going past Greek side PAOK Saloniki in the round of thirty-two, while Lazio come up against far more daunting opposition in Atletico Madrid.  In the Champions League, the Italian contingent should feel confident.  For one, Napoli and Milan have avoided Real Madrid, and secondly, they are up against sides that they seem able to beat.  Milan will want to avenge the elimination at the hands of Arsenal in the 2007-08 campaign, and they should be optimistic of restitution with a sturdier backline, a competent, at times spectacular, frontline, and a revitalized midfield, which may have problems and some deficiencies, but is nonetheless equipped to play a containing game.  Napoli, on the other hand, will be brimming with self-belief after defeating Premiership champions-elect Manchester City this year to effectively qualify for the knockout stages; surpassing Chelsea definitely does not seem impossible.  Inter's clash with Marseille seems the easiest, and the most conducive to put more distance between Italy and France in the rankings.

With five Italian clubs still in the European pursuit, Italy joins England and Spain in the group of countries with the most representatives left in UEFA competition.  Given that Manchester United and Manchester City have dropped down into the Europe's second-tier, winning the Europa League will be much harder for Lazio and Udinese.  However, the goal should be at least the quarter-final stage for one, if not both, clubs.  As for the Champions League, a sustained run for all three clubs will emphatically put Italy back in contention, and redress some of the European heartache and frustrations of recent years.  There are certainly many structural issues--stadia ownership being chief among them--with which Italy has to contend to bolster its chances in Europe in the long run.  However, while as a brand Italian football may be a bit behind, as a quintessential football product, a result of a school and philosophy, it is still registering.

UEFA Coefficient Rankings taken from Bert Kassies's website

Napoli's New Dreams

Soaring...Edinson Cavani of Napoli

You could say it was unexpected.  But you would be denying about 60,000 Neapolitans who were at the San Paolo on Tuesday.  They expected something big from Napoli, from Edinson Cavani, from Ezequiel Lavezzi, and from their poetic faith--and all things fulfilled.  Napoli have beaten Manchester City 2-1 to inch closer to the next round of the Champions League.  The group of death has finally witnessed vitality and life in what is now one of the most feared arenas in Europe.

The deafening rapture in the San Paolo at the final whistle was a giant exhale from a fanbase still breathing, defiantly and loudly, in the post-Maradona age.  Since the Argentinian left Naples two Scudetti and a UEFA Cup twenty years ago, Napoli have seen financial ruin, Serie B, and even Serie C1; and now they have seen a night like this.  It wasn't even a win in a knockout phase of Europe's premier competition, but it was a nudge against one of the opulent European powers.  For a club so used to a narrative that looks back nostalgically at the good old days of Maradona, performing so triumphantly in the present must be an experience to savour.

It wasn't only the fact that they could have beaten Manchester City 5-1 had Lavezzi, Marek Hamsik and Christian Maggio taken fairly easy chances.  It was also that they played City like they wanted to play them: at a safe distance, expertly muzzling a team that had disfigured Manchester United 6-1 at Old Trafford a few weeks ago.  Even City's solitary goal was a mistake, a blip, coming from their host's largesse as Salvatore Aronica miscued a clearance, sending it into the path of David Silva, whose shot was parried for Mario Balotelli to tap in.

That was City's only success, and it came after Cavani had headed Napoli into the lead from a corner earlier in the first half.  Admittedly, there was an element of luck in Cavani's goal, as the ball had only grazed the head of the skeletal Uruguayan, but it was enough to creep in at the near post.

Yet, after such a break, City's equalizer should have extinguished Neapolitan hope.  However, with the second half came more Cavani, straight, diagonally, and relentlessly.  And with him came Lavezzi, Andrea Dossena, and Maggio.  Napoli's second goal, the already-hallowed winner, was a sumptuous Lavezzi-Dossena-Cavani combination, a combination that the vaunted Silva couldn't mastermind all night for his team. Lavezzi found a surging Dossena who crossed for Cavani to pounce on, and he did, first-time to leave Joe Hart with no chance.

Even after that, however, City had fourty-one minutes to strike back, but their coach Roberto Mancini sulked and sunk on the sidelines, watching Lavezzi stretch Hart in the City goal, and a post thwart Marek Hamsik.  He also watched Walter Mazzarri take all the plaudits as the night's more astute technician.  This is Mazzarri's first real shot at Europe, and he completely dominated a man who has been here before--and failed before several times with Inter.

When the draw for this group was made many predicted Napoli to finish last in it.  That they sit in second going into the final matchday, their fate in their own hands, is already an astounding achievement.  If they beat Villarreal and pip a Manchester City team worth a billion euros to the second round, it will send a heart-warming message to the football world.

Joy in Naples...Napoli players celebrate

Since the summer of 2008, Manchester City's ascendancy has been brisk for their fans.  Success, forged and maintained by owners from Abu Dhabi who show no signs of tightening finances despite staggering losses, has culminated in them sitting atop the Premiership, five points ahead of their once unsurpassable rivals, Manchester United.  However, it was Napoli's fluency, their overall coherence, that overwhelmed City.  That is not to say that City are not gelling; rather, they are, which makes Napoli's collective dominance over them even more remarkable.

Mazzarri's side attacked when it had to, defended obdurately when it had to, and won when it had to.  They had already beaten Milan and Inter this season, but this win probably meant the most to Napoli's president, Aurelio De Laurentiis.  He is the man who rescued them from Serie C1 a few years ago, investing, but keeping an eye on his club's long-term health.  The movie producer is an innovator in a country with a predilection for the anachronistic.  While the private ownership of stadia law, Legge Crimi, awaits approval in Parliament, De Laurentiis is already in advanced talks with the city of Naples to take ownership of Stadio San Paolo.  He also has a vision for a youth academy that would nurture potential at all levels. A night like the one against City vindicates all his work, and not least his often bellicose praise of Napoli.

Italian football has suffered and is currently suffering, sitting behind the Bundesliga now in the UEFA coefficient rankings.  While the Premiership's luster continues to blind, Serie A as a brand is struggling.  Yet, as far as footballing philosophy is concerned, clubs like Napoli prove that their approach on the field is as modern as any European club's.  A team that sits seventh in a very competitive Serie A this year has defeated a club that sits at the top of a league that many consider the best in the world.

Quite simply, when it came down to it, Napoli meant more business than the richest club in the world.

Serie A Clubs Move Ahead Despite No Legge Crimi

Big plans: Aurelio De Laurentiis

I recently wrote about how the passage of Legge Crimi would dramatically change the modus operandi of Italian clubs when it came to working with a more balanced financial portfolio.  However, as was and is infuriatingly predictable, there seems to be absolutely no movement in passing the law through the branches of the Italian parliament.  Yet, a few clubs have announced their intention to renovate or rebuild a stadium.  It seems in the absence of any forthcoming legal imperative, clubs have shown some welcomed initiative, and the success of their initiative has depended on the extent to which city councils have been willing to negotiate.  For example, in the case of Juventus, the negotiations were swift, and the Turin city council sold the Stadio Delle Alpi to the club.  Of course, given all the well-known problems of the Stadio Delle Alpi--discussed in part here--Juventus elected to level the stadium to build a new home.

While Juventus still lead the way with their privately owned Juventus Arena, replete with commercial and merchandising opportunities, other clubs strive to follow to some degree the Bianconeri's model.  Four clubs are in some stage of improving their habitat.


Napoli: President Aurelio De Laurentiis has exhibited the most bravado.  Before his club's trip to England to take on Manchester City in this season's Champions League, he disparaged his opponents by describing them as unconscientious spendthrifts.  He also called on Michel Platini to be serious in applying the Financial Fair Play Rules.  When he is not antagonizing, De Laurentiis is diligently working to make Napoli a force--on the field and financially.

He has said that he will not bring down the Stadio San Paolo because of its history, but rather improve its existing state, and commercialize the surrounding areas.  He plans on revitalizing the Fuorigrotta area, the site of the San Paolo, during the upcoming summer.  This smaller initiative will contribute to De Laurentiis's broader plan, which includes, as Paolo Bandini tell us, "increasing the training pitches to seven, [and] the construction of living quarter for youngsters, as well as a school building where they can get help with their studies."

Palermo: It is always wise to take what Palermo owner Maurizio Zamparini says with sacks and sacks of salt.  However, even in his capricious universe, he seems serious about creating a brand new stadium for Palermo.  During September of this year, he said that soon Palermo will unveil plans for a new 35,000 seat stadium.  Of course, Zamparini has attempted to build a stadium during his ownership of Venezia as well but was thwarted by the typical bureaucratic problems.  This one will be interesting to follow.

Still trying: Thomas DiBenedetto

Roma: President Thomas DiBenedetto arrived at the club with admirable enthusiasm, announcing that building a new stadium would be the priority.  He had probably not accounted for the intransigence of Rome's city council.  Since those claims, Roma have had to put those aspirations on hold until further notice, and they will have to be content with just trying to improve the matchday experience, which means increased commercial activity around the Stadio Olimpico.  The track between the spectators and the stadium absolutely has to go.

Not the unqualified revolution for which many were hoping, but it remains to be seen whether Roma will get some breathing room in the future to realize DiBenedetto's initial hope of a new stadium.  If the temporary solution turns out to be the one that endures, it will be disappointing.

There were murmurs, however, that Roma could have a new stadium in three or four years.  It all depends on the cooperation of the city council.

Udinese: It is unclear whether president Giampaolo Pozzo has definitive plans to build a new stadium.  Some say that there are improvements planned to the current stadium (with reduced capacity making way for better viewing).  What is ambiguous is whether Udinese plan to own the Friuli (buying it from the city council), or if they plan only to work under the existing ownership.


So the news is mixed.  It appears stubborn city councils are still hindering clubs like Roma, but clubs like Napoli, buoyed also by their exploits in Europe this season, are planning big things.  Meanwhile, Milan vice-president Adriano Gallian refuses to cheer up.  He maintains that the feat Juventus have managed in building a new stadium cannot be achieved in Milan.  "The most we can do," he maintains, "is improve the San Siro and make it suitable to host the Champions League Final."  Not the ideal news for Milan fans who were hoping to rival Juventus with their own home.

Nevertheless, as clubs wait for Legge Crimi, which may be far off in the future, a lot of work remains to be done, but clubs are taking some steps forward.

Napoli Roar with Cavani

El Matador Edinson Cavani ripped through Milan

Of course, post-mortems of posticipi are always easier when your team isn't involved.  I have always preferred to have Milan play earlier on in the weekend, so that I can watch the "big game" of the weekend, which, in theory, should fall on Sunday evening, with either smugness or resignation, depending on how Milan have done earlier.

When the posticipo in question is a title-tilt, the pressure is unbearable.  Luckily for me, Milan's 3-0 annihilation of Inter last season was on a Saturday evening, so I was spared the agonizing wait for Sunday.  Furthermore, my nerves were fortunately less frayed than they might have been had the game been sinuous.  As it happened, Pato made things easy after fourty-five seconds, and Milan strolled to victory.

Early in the season, when there is relatively little at stake, a fan like me watches for how the landscape will be laid for the season ahead.  The hope is your team grinds its teeth against--with all due respect--the Cesenas and Sienas before tussling with the Scudetto contenders.  Admittedly, Milan's shocking defeat to Cesena last season upturns even this assurance.  Nevertheless, on Sunday, Napoli's resounding 3-1 win over the reigning champions at the San Paolo, during just the second week of the Serie A season, felt a bit like being kicked in the teeth.

It was a posticipo that kicked me out of complacency, at least.  Despite the lack of a big signing, Milan went about their work intelligently this past summer, adding depth to an already parsimonious defence, and even creativity further up the park with Alberto Aquilani.  A team that had led the standings from November to May triumphed deservedly last season; giving the coach options like Philippe Mexes in defence, Antonio Nocerino in midfield, and Aquilani in attack only seemed to set them up perfectly for a successful title defence.

Not so, suggested Napoli.  Even allowing for the fact that Milan were missing Zlatan Ibrahimovic, Robinho, and Kevin-Prince Boateng, their defeat on Sunday was hideous.  It's excruciating to pick out everything that went wrong with the Milan performance, but there are some points that have to be mentioned. Singling out Clarence Seedorf is always easy, so let's go with him.  There are moments in the season when Seedorf decides that a competitive game is a jaunt.  Last night's encounter against Napoli was one such game.  And then there is Pato, who lilts when given space (as Barcelona's Javier Mascherano and Sergio Busquets found out in the Champions League) and wilts when he isn't.  The striker is undoubtedly talented, but even in his fourth season at Milan he plays with a clumsy urgency, running into a wall of defenders when there are other options.

To be fair his team-mates didn't make anything easy--and neither did Napoli.  Even after Aquilani had given Milan the lead with a dazzling header, Napoli didn't give up.  Their coach Walter Mazzarri could not have asked for a more perfectly executed bite-of-the-thumb from the Southern upstarts at the Northern aristocrats.  Napoli's president, Aurelio De Laurentiis, sat smiling, joyfully and wryly, as Edinson Cavani, Ezequiel Lavezzi, Walter Gargano and Gokhan Inler ran, often uncontested, at, through, and by the Milan midfield.  Gargano's run to set up Napoli's and Cavani's second goal defied even an attempt at a brutal tackle by the normally pugnacious Mark van Bommel.  It was a moment that indicted, not for the first time, a legless and senescent midfield.  How Milan miss Boateng.

Yet, the game, for all of the dominance of Inler, and for all of the industry of Gargano and Lavezzi, can be summarized in three words: Cavani, Cavani, Cavani.  The Uruguayan's hat-trick undoubtedly was possible because of a capable cast, and it would be unfair to elide their contribution in any way.  Yet, Cavani proved that his twenty-six goals in Serie A last season were the signs of an awesome striker, the real deal who didn't achieve full flight at Palermo.  He is soaring now at Napoli. His third goal, an agile reaction shot after Alessandro Nesta's clearance fell to him, proved that the man is always in the hunt.

It shouldn't be all despair for Milan.  The new summer signings of Aquilani and Nocerino had decent outings (even if the former missed a simple chance to make it 2-2),  and surely this Milan will be different when all their players return.  It is too early to sulk.  Yet, it must worry Allegri that the midfield lost so many balls--or perhaps Milan didn't play with any to begin with.