On UEFA Coefficients and Serie A's Progress

Papu Gomez celebrates Atalanta's equalizer vs Lyon in the Europa League

In the late summer of 2002, the question of whether Serie A could still be considered the best league in the world seemed more pressing than ever.  No Italian club had reached the quarter-final of the Champions League in the season that had just ended, the national team had disintegrated at the World Cup, and the league's star Ronaldo had left Inter for Real Madrid.

In truth, the question had been asked for years, quietly or stridently, and at the start of the 2002-03 season the answer seemed obvious: no. 

Eight months later, however, Inter, Juventus and Milan were in the semi-finals of the Champions League, and journalists had to revise obituaries.  On May 28, 2003, Old Trafford hosted the first all-Italian Final between Milan and Juventus.  Serie A was vindicated, robed in the glitter of UEFA's premier event, but the game was played in the cagey spirit for which Italian football is stereotyped and maligned, as if the two clubs were determined to torture their detractors, slowly, with flints and chisels.  The Final was rarely carved open.  Milan won on penalties, and Italian football's critics paid them--for being too quick to close the door, to forget the qualities that make Italian football competitive and relevant.

Today, fourteen years later, the question of whether Serie A is the best league in the world has a clear answer yet again: no.  The criteria that many use to arrive at this conclusion varies--entertainment, star power, financial health et al.--but more and more are now using what only a small core of fans did several years ago, the UEFA coefficient system (for a quick explanation of the system check out Bert Kassies's valuable site).

Every Champions League and Europa League matchday, I become a better person and cheer for all Italian clubs.  The reason is sentimental but can also be expressed as a formula.  This season, for every win Italy gets 2 (for a draw 1, for a loss 0) divided by 6 (total number of teams allotted) points, or 0.333 points.  So, this past matchday, Italy managed 5 wins (Milan, Napoli, Juventus, Lazio, and Roma) and 1 draw (Atalanta), totaling 1.833 points.  As a result, Italy climbed up to third spot in the UEFA coefficient rankings, ahead of Germany, and now sits tantalizingly close to England (Spain are far, far ahead).

The meaning of that success has few practical consequences in the immediate term.  Late last year, UEFA announced that the top 4 leagues (Spain, England, Italy, and Germany) would enjoy four representatives in the Champions League from the 2018-19 anyway.  But the coefficient ranking nonetheless quantifies a league's success, setting aside the gnashing of teeth and making numeric the vexed and emotional 'which league is best' debate. 

UEFA Coefficient rankings (image taken from Bert Kassies's site located here)

The UEFA coefficient system does have its flaws.  For example, it weighs victories in the Europa League the same as those in the Champions League, with only bonus points awarded upon progression in the latter to compensate partially for the calculation.  But the system remains the closest thing we have to a deterministic criteria for judging the health and strength of various leagues across Europe.

It also matters for the league's vanity, for its self-esteem.  After every matchday, it is now common for Italian journalists on social media to remind us where Serie A is in the rankings.  And this season, no one expected Serie A to be more than 3.5 points ahead of Germany.  There have been some performances of distinction as well, like Atalanta flattening Everton 3-0 in the Europa League a few weeks ago, and earning a point against Lyon in France just this past week, or like Napoli totally dominating Nice over two legs in the Champions League play-offs. 

This season may be Serie A's best chance to solidify its position in third, and even replace England in second when you consider both the quality of their representation, and that they will have one more representative next season (meaning a higher number to divide the points by, and thus a lower return for a win, for those keeping track).  Milan and Lazio should go deep into the tournament (Milan's ludicrous 3-2 win over Rijeka on Thursday notwithstanding), and Atalanta have started convincingly with four points from their two toughest games.  And then there are Juventus, who have played two losing Champions League Finals in the last two years, but who have nonetheless earned Italy valuable points, and should earn more this year.

Serie A may not be able to repeat what it did in 2002-03 in the Champions League, but the feats of 2014-15 are achievable, and, hopefully, surpassable.  That season, Italy earned 19 points.  Lazio and Napoli played the semi-finals of the Europa League, and Juventus the Final of the Champions League.  The early signs are promising. 

Learning to Like Kalinic

Kalinic thinks he has scored a hat-trick against Udinese

Milan's signing of Nikola Kalinic was not the one many fans had hoped for after a summer of
reportedly dealing with names like Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, Andrea Belotti, and Alvaro Morata. When the former Fiorentina striker went on strike in the middle of August, refusing to train with La Viola in an attempt to force the move, it endeared him neither to the Fiorentina fans nor the Milan ones.

His proponents talked about his mobility, his sacrifice, his twenty-seven goals in two seasons for Fiorentina, and how well he would fit in coach Vincenzo Montella's team, but that was also where the problems lay for his detractors.  Kalinic was too much of a safe choice, whose output and limits were predictable.

There is something eminently insipid about Kalinic for the modern football fan.  His haircut is maddeningly conformist.  His face shows no torment of the thirty-years-or-so footballer, no affected gravitas of a Messi-style beard, or the lined forehead of the journeyman struggling for relevance. 

Clean-shaven and generally unimpressed, Kalinic seems to show up more for work than he does for a match, applying himself with corporate reserve on the pitch.  Even when he celebrates a goal, he does it as if he knows exactly where it figures in life's calculus of joys.

So, when he stuck three fingers up to the San Siro after scoring what he thought was his hat-trick goal against Udinese on Sunday, his matter-of-fact celebration was fitting, precise, showing that despite everything Kalinic hadn't lost his bearing--or count.  

The 'goal' was ruled out by VAR, but Kalinic's other two counted in Milan's 2-1 win over Udinese. The first was brilliantly improvised, as Kalinic passed to Davide Calabria on the right, and poked the return ball home.  The second goal showed the Croatian is not above putting his tall, awkward frame at the service of the team, stabbing the ball into the goal with one of his long legs as he collapsed to the floor from a challenge.

Both goals came through a crowd of legs or a heap of bodies, as if Kalinic was brute-forcing his way into San Siro recognition.  

He may not be the number 7 that Milan fans wanted.  He may not be the number 7 that Milan fans had with Andriy Shevchenko either.  But even on that count, Kalinic has an answer, mundane but disarming.

"I am a number 9," he told SKY after the game. "But it was taken by Andre Silva, so I took 7 instead."

Kalinic is a reluctant number 7, and Milan fans have reluctantly accepted him as the shirt's heir.  But if he continues what he has started against Udinese, eventually reaching that elusive twenty-goal mark this season, fans may forget how close they came to Aubameyang or Belotti during the summer.

Lotito and the Morality of Numbers

Lotito basks in Lazio's Supercup win against Juventus

In their Sunday edition, La Repubblica previewed Milan vs Lazio as a match between two clubs at the opposite ends of the financial spectrum.  It was a case of a deficit vs. surplus.  Milan had closed the transfer campaign at -165 million euros, and Lazio at +37 million euros.

To a degree, La Repubblica were buttressing what Lazio owner and president Claudio Lotito had told  Il Messagero  in an interview a couple of days earlier.  In issuing a thinly-veiled attack on Juventus, Lotito also branded Keita Balde Diao's behaviour as 'extortion.' Juventus knew the player's contract was running out in 2018, and that Diao only wanted to play for them, so they duly exploited that fact when low-balling Lotito, who refused to sell the player at any other price than the one he had in mind.  As it turned out, Diao went to Monaco for more than thirty million euros, twice what Juventus were offering, thus vindicating Lotito's summer-long intransigence.

Tellingly, the Lazio president also boasted about his club's books, pointing out that Lazio would close the financial year with a 14 million euros profit.  It was the kind of money-minded response that rankles the Lazio support, many of whom still remember the headier days of Sergio Cragnotti's ownership, during which Lazio, most notably, won a Scudetto in 2000.

Lotito is a different president, one who has not privileged financial health over sporting success, but one who has always sought a fine balance between the two.  Cragnotti's, of course, is a cautionary tale.  When his company Cirio was in ruins, so were Lazio.  Lotito operates as the antithesis of that approach, a counterpoint to excess.

La Repubblica, then, were not just laying bare numbers down to highlight disparities in accounting, but were also making a familiar argument more subtly, namely that fiscal responsibility is also a moral one, and that Lazio in a way were already moral victors before a ball had been kicked at the Stadio Olimpico.   That they crushed Milan 4-1 with Lotito beaming in the stands, vindicated once again, was according to this line of reasoning a just conclusion.

Milan CEO Marco Fassone has already once forcefully defended his club's finances against Roma owner Pallotta's charge of "madness" this past summer.  Milan are in transition, looking to get back to where they were, and have spent with a plan in mind.  But fairly or unfairly (mostly unfairly) the numbers will permeate everything that they do this season. 200 million euros spent means you can't lose 4-1 to Lazio.  That sum subsumes all other considerations like whether the defeat is due to geometry (3-5-2 vs 4-3-3) or chemistry (Montella's insistence that the team has yet to gel).

Lotito's Lazio, on the other hand, can be a paradigm for Serie A's middle class, one that is simply not content to eke out an existence, but to flourish despite the spending of clubs above them.  It's not an easy task to achieve the ideal balance between finances and success.  Take Fiorentina, as an example.  The Viola were rescued by the Della Valle family years ago, but just suffered a miserable season, and lost key players over the summer like Borja Valero (Inter), Federico Bernardeschi (Juventus), and Nikola Kalinic (Milan).

In contrast, Lotito has kept or introduced Lazio's key elements, while offloading players without whom the club can still win.  Lazio have already won the Supercup this season against Juventus, and the way they dismantled Milan suggests they are genuine contenders for the Champions League places--and all that without spending much.

Players like Ciro Immobile, Sergej Milinković-Savić, and Lucas Levia were the stars on Sunday, and didn't cost hefty sums.   Simeone Inzaghi, a former Lazio player and youth team coach, the man now being lauded as one of the best coaches in Italy, was hastily appointed at the helm when Marco Bielsa resigned after just two days, two summers ago.

Lotito was defiant in the face of protests then as well, insisting that Inzaghi was the right man for the job because he reflected the club's values.  His methods have been proven right once again, and he also has the numbers to show for it.

The Stadio Milan Squabble

There were murmurs for a few days that Milan could abandon plans to build a stadium in the Portello area, right next to Casa Milan, the club's headquarters, and they projected into a very public squabble on Thursday.

The Fondazione Fiera, who own the land and are responsible for developing the city's exhibition industry, awarded Milan the area in early July after a protracted process that saw the club overcome rival bids. The enthusiasm that followed the decision indicated that the worst of it was over, and that the city council's compliance would be a much easier process.  Joint CEO Barbara Berlusconi even delivered a somewhat ornate message through the club's official website, which pronounced her vision for a "Milan like London," in which the stadium was a linchpin of civic life (a boon lost on the local residents that have been protesting its construction for months).

However, Milan raised suspicions at the land's exorbitant reclamation cost, which they maintain was not made clear to them earlier.  The Fondazione Fiera claim, very vocally in today's Corriere della Sera, that they had been transparent all along and that Barbara Berlusconi even agreed to all the stipulations.

Milan issued a stern rejoinder through their website today, reminding the people at Fondazione Fiera that they were still waiting for the details of the reclamation and that they were working without any binding contracts.  Milan also added that had these costs been made clear in the previous 8 months, the club may have seriously evaluated other areas, and now to build a stadium for the start of the 2018-19 season (the original plan) may be impossible, resulting in lost revenue.

That is the encapsulation of the quarrel, a quarrel that is quintessentially Italian in some ways, and typical of these sorts of projects in others.  

To add to the rigmarole, some sections of the Italian media also speculated that Bee Taechaubol, the broker representing a consortium that aims to buy 48% of Milan by September 30th, was lukewarm towards Barbara Berlusconi's stadium idea as well.  However, that was denied yesterday by Licia Ronzulli, a mediator between Milan owner Silvio Berlusconi and the Thai broker.

Meanwhile, Milan fans eagerly await a denouement.  The club have already looked at alternatives.

Milan's official statement: http://www.acmilan.com/en/news/show/158251

The coveted Portello area right next to Casa Milan with a rendering of Milan's proposed stadium

My Thoughts on Parma's Troubles

Parma captain Alessandro Lucarelli described his club's swift disintegration as a "disgusting farce," while former hero Hernan Crespo had "no words" left to express.  That seems about right.  Despite its grim implications for Italian football, there is something meaningless about Parma's financial ruin, something so annihilating that to begin to describe it in words is a desperate lunge towards meaning where there is none.  Here, I will not talk about all that has been described, unpacked already for you in broadsheets and blogs.  Here are only my brief thoughts.

After all, the reason of financial mismanagement is inadequate, and veils something more sinister.  Parma's demise is symptomatic of a pervasive malevolence in Italian football, of administrators and owners who are willing to suborn each other to tear down the history and culture of institutions that are embedded in civic life.  Parma is a club that deserves to live and breathe in a city that has left a lasting mark on me since my visit there last year, a city poised, self-confident, and possessing the most exquisite cuisine in Italy.

Below are some pictures of the warm Parma fan club that my host and I stumbled upon during one of our excursions in the city.  In bocca al lupo, Parma F.C. .

A Comprehensive Italy Failure

Even the acrimony surrounding Claudio Marchisio's harsh red card and Luis Suarez's bite on Giorgio

Marchisio red...furious Italian players surround the referee  

Chiellini's shoulder will not distract from what was frankly an abysmal performance by Italy at this World Cup.  There is very little that is redeemable, and a lot that is regrettable.

After the victory against England, there was premature but palpable optimism of going all the way.  Given England's subsequent performances in their next group games, that optimism proved embarrassingly misplaced.  The English were the true whipping boys of the group, failing to gain even a consolation win against Costa Rica in their final game, and Italy's win against Roy Hodgson's charges in the opener signified very little.

Yet now with all the sums done, it is still hard to comprehend how Italy failed not only to record a victory over Costa Rica or Uruguay, but also to score against them in over three hours of play.

The failure is so comprehensive that it is difficult even to know where to start the inquest.  Cesare Prandelli resigned as coach right after the defeat, and so did federation president Giancarlo Abate.  Gianluigi Buffon and Andrea Pirlo have now played their last World Cup.  Daniele De Rossi is now thirty-one.  And the successors? Mattia De Sciglio, Marco Verratti and Lorenzo Insigne are all promising but are not yet world class.  This transition will be painful and will require a radical reimagining.

Buffon dubbed the exit as "deserved," while De Rossi said that "real men need to play in the national team, not Panini stickers or characters," referring to Mario Balotelli's most recent gag.  Sure, the latter's opinion was clunky in expression, but he was transparently frustrated at the lack of tenacity from players who were, we were told, fine-tuned for the occasion.

And we may as well talk about Balotelli, who ghosted in and out of the tournament, bristling and collapsing from the slightest touches.  There are no excuses to be made anymore for the less-than-super Mario.   His movement, his touches, and his conduct are absolutely unacceptable. 

There are only criticisms for Italy, unfortunately.  From the starters to the substitutes to the coach, this was a colossal failure.  Prandelli changed his line-up in all three games, but he made no impact.  His meddling was symptomatic more of panic than a plan. 

"I take responsibility for the failure of this technical project," said Prandelli with his usual disarming grace. Indeed, the project unraveled in the worst possible way in the Brazilian heat.  It was as if these players had not played with each other ever.  The project's failure will hopefully prompt the clubs to cooperate more with the national team coach, something that Prandelli had been demanding for a while.  For now, there is only uncertainty.

Given that Serie A is also struggling in Europe, the questions facing Italian football are complicated and innumerable.

Italy's Cursed Second Game

Beat Costa Rica tomorrow and book a place in the round of sixteen.  Seems easy, but Italy over the

Ibra scores through a stupendous back-heel against Italy (Euro2004)

recent years have had a habit of dramatically self-destructing in their second group stage game.

Take World Cup 2002.  Italy had swept aside Ecuador in their opening fixture 2-0 with two blistering goals from Christian Vieri.  Against Croatia in the next game, a draw would have been an acceptable result.  It started well enough when Vieri (who else?) put Italy in the lead via a looping header.  However, scandalous refereeing that saw two perfectly good Italian goals ruled out and a spirited resurgence from Croatia ensured Italy lost 2-1.  Italy barely made it into the next round after Alessandro Del Piero salvaged a point against Mexico in the final group game and Ecuador unexpectedly beat Croatia.

Two years later, Euro2004 was to prove similarly tortuous.  Italy's first game against Denmark had ended 0-0, and they needed to beat Sweden to maintain some purchase on the group.  All seemed to be going to plan when Antonio Cassano headed them into the lead before half-time.  However, five minutes from time Zlatan Ibrahimovic scored a preternatural back-heel goal, which meant a 2-2 or higher score draw between Denmark and Sweden would render Italy's last group game against Bulgaria meaningless.  The 2-2 infamously materialized, and Italy were sent crashing out despite a 2-1 win over Bulgaria.

Even Italy's victorious World Cup 2006 campaign featured a farcical 1-1 draw against the United States.  Italy beat Ghana 2-0 in their opener but their second game against the United States encapsulated their schizophrenic nature perfectly.  After taking the lead through Alberto Gilardino, Italy magnificently collapsed.  First, Cristian Zaccardo scored an own-goal (the only goal Italy conceded from open play during the entire tournament) and then Daniele De Rossi decided to confirm the misery by elbowing Brian McBride and drawing blood and a red card.  Within minutes, Italy had squandered their advantage, and made their final group game against the Czech Republic much more complicated than necessary.

Though Italy started Euro2008 with a disastrous 3-0 loss to Holland, their second group stage game against Romania should have galvanized them.  However, they fumbled their way to a 1-1 draw, needing Gianluigi Buffon to save a penalty to keep them in the tournament.  In the next game, they defeated France 2-0 to go through, but could have avoided that do-or-die situation.

Italy's World Cup 2010 performance was a total shambles so is barely worth mentioning.  However, in Euro2012 the accursed second game came back to haunt Italy again.  After drawing Spain impressively in their opening game, Italy could only draw Croatia in the second group stage game even after an Andrea Pirlo goal courtesy of a free-kick.  The 1-1 result meant Italy needed to count on Spain and Croatia not drawing 2-2 or higher--an eerie repeat of Euro2004.  Luckily, Italy beat Ireland, and Spain beat Croatia, meaning Spain and Italy went through to the next round.

Tomorrow, against Costa Rica, Cesare Prandelli's Italy are favourites by a huge margin, but are being cautious.  Daniele De Rossi has already opined that the game will be Italy's "most difficult" of the group stage, not least because it will be played at 1pm in the Recife heat.  Italy played Japan in the Confederations Cup last summer in the same venue, and they remember the airless surroundings acutely well.

However, the weather can be no excuse.  After Uruguay's win over England today, Italy have a prime opportunity to seal progression, and to avoid the final-day drama they have become so accustomed to over the last decade.  Here's hoping for a convincing win.

Forza Azzurri!